Knowledge Management System Of Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, CAS
| Long-term cost trajectories for biofuels in China projected to 2050 | |
Xu, Jie1,2 ; Yuan, Zhenhong1; Chang, Shiyan3,4
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| 2018-10-01 | |
| Source Publication | ENERGY
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| ISSN | 0360-5442 |
| Volume | 160Pages:452-465 |
| Corresponding Author | Chang, Shiyan(changshiyan@tsinghua.edu.cn) |
| Abstract | Biofuels mitigate and offset greenhouse gases. A long-term levelized cost of energy (LCOE) estimation for biofuels in China was carried out, using a novel probabilistic model to analyze the likelihood of biofuels economically outrunning fossil fuels. This model calculated LCOE based on five uncertain input parameters fed into a Monte Carlo simulation, namely, discount rate, firm size, feedstock price, product yield and catalyst/enzyme cost, while key assumptions were used to determine their probability distributions. Model results show that the mean levelized costs of most biofuel technologies will fall below 9500 Chinese Yuan per ton by 2030 and below 9000 Chinese Yuan per ton by 2050; it is highly possible for most biofuel technologies to gain economic feasibility and competitiveness by around 2025-2030 in China. The LCOE reduction of 1.5-generation (1.5G) biofuels is feedstock-driven, while that of 2nd -generation (2G) biofuels is technology-driven. Meanwhile, 1.5G biofuels are more sensitive to crude oil price changes than 2G biofuels, with a drop in crude oil price having a greater effect on 2G biofuels than a rise. On average, every 10% rise in crude oil price accelerates their economic feasibility by 2-3 years, while every 10% drop delays this feasibility by 3-5 years. (C) 2018 Published by Elsevier Ltd. |
| Keyword | Biofuel Monte Carlo simulation Uncertainty analysis Levelized cost of energy Renewable energy |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.energy.2018.06.126 |
| WOS Keyword | FISCHER-TROPSCH SYNTHESIS ; MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION ; LIFE-CYCLE ASSESSMENT ; TECHNOECONOMIC ASSESSMENT ; LEVELIZED COST ; BIODIESEL PRODUCTION ; SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS ; RENEWABLE ENERGY ; POWER-GENERATION ; PRODUCT DISTRIBUTION |
| Indexed By | SCI |
| Language | 英语 |
| Funding Project | National Natural Science Foundation of China[71673165] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71690244] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71774095] |
| WOS Research Area | Thermodynamics ; Energy & Fuels |
| Funding Organization | National Natural Science Foundation of China |
| WOS Subject | Thermodynamics ; Energy & Fuels |
| WOS ID | WOS:000445985300037 |
| Publisher | PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD |
| Citation statistics | |
| Document Type | 期刊论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.giec.ac.cn/handle/344007/23989 |
| Collection | 中国科学院广州能源研究所 |
| Corresponding Author | Chang, Shiyan |
| Affiliation | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Guangzhou Inst Energy Convers, Guangzhou 510640, Guangdong, Peoples R China 2.Danish Energy Agcy, DK-1256 Copenhagen, Denmark 3.Tsinghua Univ, Inst Energy Environm & Econ, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China 4.Tsinghua Univ, Tsinghua Rio Tinto Joint Res Ctr Resources Energy, Lab Low Carbon Energy, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China |
| First Author Affilication | GuangZhou Institute of Energy Conversion,Chinese Academy of Sciences |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Xu, Jie,Yuan, Zhenhong,Chang, Shiyan. Long-term cost trajectories for biofuels in China projected to 2050[J]. ENERGY,2018,160:452-465. |
| APA | Xu, Jie,Yuan, Zhenhong,&Chang, Shiyan.(2018).Long-term cost trajectories for biofuels in China projected to 2050.ENERGY,160,452-465. |
| MLA | Xu, Jie,et al."Long-term cost trajectories for biofuels in China projected to 2050".ENERGY 160(2018):452-465. |
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